研究成果：LIU, Xiaolei; CUI, Xuefeng; NATH, Reshmita. Future Arable Land Requirement of Pig Production in China. Journal of Agricultural Science, [S.l.], v. 8, n. 1, p. p139, dec. 2015. ISSN 1916-9760.

简介：中国的生猪产业正在急剧的扩展着，未来如何发展并对有限耕地资源造成多大影响值得深入研究。本文中，计算了从2001年到2013年生猪产业的粮食需求，并且对未来的粮食需求进行了预测。结果表明，粮食需求从2001年的22 百万公顷上升到了2013年的31.6百万公顷，而经预测，生猪产业的粮食需求在2030年将在23.7到29.4百万公顷之间，而2050将下降到11.6到18.7百万公顷的范围内。对数平均迪氏指数法（LMDI）被用于评估人口、消费量、和技术三个因素的影响，结果表明技术将是首要的影响因素。这些发现，将帮助决策者们在有限的土地和日益发展的生猪也之间找到最优的分配方法，促进生猪产业的可持续发展。

Abstract
China’s pig industry is experiencing a dramatic increase to meet increasing consumption demand. How these changes influence the limited arable land resources through consuming grain as feed has not been clearly understood. In this manuscript, we calculate the arable land requirement for pig industry (LRP) from 2001 to 2013 and forecast future demand towards 2050 from the point of production, in order to quantify the pressure in different scenarios. The results indicate that the LRP has increased from 22.0 Million Ha in 2001 to 31.6 Million Ha in 2013. LRP will be 23.7-29.4 Million Ha in 2030 and 11.6-18.7 Million Ha in 2050 according to different scenarios. Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method is assessed to the effect of population, consumption and technology for three time periods e.g. 2010-2030; 2030-2050 and 2010-2050. And technology will become primary reason. These findings could help optimizing the relationships between limited arable land resources and development of pig industry, and promote sustainable development of the pig industry.